Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1457 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 1457 · POP → MIA

departs 1:18 PM AST · arrives 3:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at POP that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

POP (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1457 · POP → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?