Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1644 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1644 · CLT → BNA

departs 12:39 AM ET · arrives 1:14 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1644 · CLT → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?