Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1976 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 1976 · MIA → SJU

departs 10:54 AM ET · arrives 1:47 PM AT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1976 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?