Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1985 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 1985 · PHL → MIA

departs 9:55 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1985 · PHL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?