Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2246 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 2246 · MIA → NAS

departs 10:07 AM ET · arrives 11:15 AM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at NAS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NAS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into NAS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2246 · MIA → NAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to NAS?