AA 2263 · PHX → MIA

departs 12:09 AM MT · arrives 7:28 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2263 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?