Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2485 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 2485 · ORD → JFK

departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

JFK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2485 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?