Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2485 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2485 · ORD → JFK

departs 1:24 PM CT · arrives 4:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

JFK (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2485 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?