Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3081 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 3081 · BDL → DCA

departs 5:37 AM ET · arrives 7:16 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BDL are usually not late

Weather at each end

BDL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3081 · BDL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?