Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3126 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 3126 · DCA → MSY

departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3126 · DCA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?