Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3133 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 3133 · ORD → MSP

departs 1:25 PM CT · arrives 3:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3133 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?