Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3211 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 3211 · LGA → MIA

departs 9:28 AM ET · arrives 12:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3211 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?