Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 489 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 489 · ORD → DCA

departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 9:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

DCA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 489 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?