Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 813 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 813 · DFW → EWR

departs 11:51 AM CT · arrives 4:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 813 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?