Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 909 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 909 · MIA → SVD

departs 10:28 AM ET · arrives 2:24 PM AST

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SVD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SVD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SVD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SVD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 909 · MIA → SVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to SVD?