Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 731 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AC 731 · LGA → YUL

departs 10:53 AM ET · arrives 12:19 PM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at YUL that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 731 · LGA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?