Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 734 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AC 734 · YUL → LGA

departs 6:10 PM EDT · arrives 7:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±10 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at YUL that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.32 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 734 · YUL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?