Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 734 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AC 734 · YUL → LGA

departs 6:08 PM EDT · arrives 7:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 734 · YUL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?