Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1357 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 1357 · SEA → SNA

departs 11:06 AM PT · arrives 1:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1357 · SEA → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?