Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 15 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 15 · DCA → SAN

departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 1:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 15 · DCA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?