Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 2 · SEA → DCA

departs 1:46 PM PT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2 · SEA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?