Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 311 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 311 · BOS → PDX

departs 10:05 AM ET · arrives 1:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ 10am departures from BOS are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

PDX (destination) Gusts2 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 311 · BOS → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?