Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 311 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 311 · BOS → PDX

departs 10:03 AM ET · arrives 1:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 10am departures from BOS are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip0.04 in

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 311 · BOS → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?