Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 526 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 526 · PDX → SFO

departs 7:19 AM PT · arrives 9:16 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts2 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 526 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?