Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 526 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AS 526 · PDX → SFO

departs 7:19 AM PT · arrives 9:16 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 526 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?