Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 5 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 5 · DCA → LAX

departs 9:25 AM ET · arrives 11:47 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 5 · DCA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?