Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 602 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AS 602 · SEA → DEN

departs 1:13 PM PT · arrives 4:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 602 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?