Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 602 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 602 · SEA → DEN

departs 1:13 PM PT · arrives 4:52 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 602 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?