Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 719 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 719 · SLC → SEA

departs 9:41 AM MT · arrives 10:42 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9am departures from SLC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.83 in

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 719 · SLC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?