Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 719 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AS 719 · SLC → SEA

departs 9:40 AM MT · arrives 10:41 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 719 · SLC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?