Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 731 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 731 · PHX → PAE

departs 11:18 AM MT · arrives 2:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

PAE (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 731 · PHX → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?