B6 715 · BOS → BUF

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±5 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 6pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

BUF (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 715 · BOS → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?