Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
B6 855 · BOS → DCA
departs 12:53 PM ET · arrives 2:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 10/12 54%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 33%
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.