Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4291
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4291 · BUF → IAD
departs 2:57 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at BUF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.