Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4315 · IAH → HSV
departs 1:23 PM CT · arrives 3:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Mon 10/12 18%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
1pm departures from IAH are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.