Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4315 · IAH → HSV
departs 1:13 PM CT · arrives 3:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
1pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HSV (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.