Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4838 · ICT → IAH
departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:54 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from ICT are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.