Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4838 · ICT → IAH
departs 9:13 AM CT · arrives 11:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ICT that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from ICT are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ICT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 1.64 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.