Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4934
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4934 · LCH → IAH
departs 12:15 PM CT · arrives 1:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LCH that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LCH (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.10 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.