Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4980
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4980 · HRL → IAH
departs 1:58 PM CT · arrives 3:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 26%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1pm departures from HRL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
HRL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.