Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4980
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4980 · HRL → IAH
departs 1:51 PM CT · arrives 3:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1pm departures from HRL are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at HRL that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
HRL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.