Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 1523 · DCA → BOS
departs 11:53 AM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.