Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1533 · MSP → ORD
departs 12:52 PM CT · arrives 2:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 26%
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.