Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1542 · MSP → LAS
departs 2:51 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 73%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.