Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 1578 · ORD → MSP
departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 11:27 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,067 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.