Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1613 · MSP → MCI
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 2:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
1pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.