DL 1686 · PHL → DTW

departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1686 · PHL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?