Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1686 · PHL → DTW
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.