Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 2021 · MSP → ATL
departs 4:23 PM CT · arrives 8:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.