Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
DL 2245 · JFK → MSP
departs 5:47 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 34%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 39%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.